除尘器优化选型的模糊数学模型

应用模糊数学和系统工程的原理和方法，对除尘器的优化选型进行了分析和研究，提出了一种除尘器优化选型的模糊数学模型，并对该模型的有效性和精确性进行了实例验证。     

Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change

Moral foundations theory argues that moral reasoning is widely observed and fundamental to the legitimacy of relevant governance and policy interventions. A new analytical framework to examine and test how moral reasoning underpins and legitimizes governance and practice on adaptation to climate change risks is proposed. It develops a typology of eight categories of vulnerability-based and system-based moral reasoning that pertain to the dilemmas around adaptation and examines the prevalence of these moral categories in public discourse about specific adaptation issues. The framework is tested using data on climate change impact, adaptation, and societal responsibility, drawn from 14 focus groups comprising 148 participants across the UK. Participants consistently use moral reasoning to explain their views on climate adaptation; these include both vulnerability-based and system-based framings. These findings explain public responses to adaptation options and governance, and have implications for the direction of adaptation policy, including understanding which types of reasoning support politically legitimate interventions.     

Unintended Effects of Emphasizing the Role of Climate Change in Recent Natural Disasters

In 2017, the United States experienced a series of natural hazards (hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards) that resulted in significant loss of life and property. Emphasizing the role of climate change in these events might offer an important tool for engagement, particularly with skeptical audiences. However, in a survey experiment (N?=?1504) involving three different natural hazards – hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards – we find that emphasizing the role of climate change in these hazards produced unintended effects for climate change skeptics. In particular, skeptics experienced resistance to the news article, which associated with reduced perceived hazard severity. These backfiring effects likely serve as a defensive mechanism used by skeptics to maintain their prior views of climate change, illustrating the challenges faced in communicating climate change to skeptical audiences. These findings offer additional insight for those attempting to communicate climate-related risk information to skeptical audiences.     

一种基于状态向量推理的SDG-HAZOP分析方法

HAZOP是分析系统可靠性的一种有效方法,在石油、化工工业中得到了广泛应用。但人工HAZOP分析存在费时、费力、成本高等缺点,而计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP分析的提出有效地改善了人工分析的弊端,然而传统的计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP是纯定性的分析与推理,分析的结果往往过于冗繁。本文介绍了一种改进的基于状态向量推理的计算机辅助SDG-HAZOP分析方法,该方法基于SDG定性模型,构造了一个计算机自动推理引擎,并引入了状态向量的概念,通过正向反向推理,快速高效地发掘出偏差产生的后果和原因。通过应用实践表明,与人工HAZOP分析法和现有SDG-HAZOP分析方法相比,该方法具有完备性好、评价结果系统性和条理性强等优点。     

基于知识推理的发电企业设备风险管理应用研究

基于发电企业设备自身的特点及工作人员对风险知识认知的局限性,有必要分析发电企业设备在运行、检修中潜在的风险.分析了设备风险知识与风险管理的关系,并以发电企业各类大型设备中应用最广泛的电动机为例,解决了电动机风险知识的表达及推理问题,为实现基于知识的设备风险管理提供了一种思路,对指导发电企业的设备日常维护、巡检以及状态监测、避免不必要的损失有着积极的意义.     

化工火灾事故调查方法研究

为克服化工火灾调查中人为因素的影响,增强事故调查的科学性和准确性,在总结化工火灾现场特点的基础上,提出化工火灾事故调查时应遵循的假设推理法,通过证据收集、分析资料、建立假设、检验假设和选择假设,构建化工火灾事故调查的证据系统,包括实物证据,位置证据、文件证据和人证,从火灾动力学角度分析了火灾痕迹的影响因素。结果表明:假设推理法重视证据收集,综合使用归纳推理和演绎推理,有助于避免主观判断的影响;采用系统方法收集证据,扩大证据收集的范围,列举证据清单和优先考虑敏感性证据的方法有助于提高调查效率;火灾行为、材料的热响应和灭火行动对火灾痕迹的形成有直接影响,分析时应充分考虑,以免作出错误的判断。     

Software tools to support incident reporting in safety-critical systems

Incident reporting systems are playing an increasingly important role in the development and maintenance of safety-critical applications. The perceived success of the FAA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and the FDA's MedWatch has led to the establishment of similar national and international schemes. These enable individuals and groups to report their safety concerns in a confidential or anonymous manner. Unfortunately, many of these systems are becoming victims of their own success. The ASRS and MedWatch have both now received over 500,000 submissions. In consequence, the administrators of incident reporting systems increasingly rely upon software tools to support the administration of their systems. In the past, these systems have relied upon ad hoc applications of conventional database technology. However, there are several reasons why this technology is inadequate for many large-scale reporting schemes. In particular, the problems of query formation often result in poor precision and recall. This, in turn, has profound implications for safety-critical applications. Users may fail to identify similar incidents within national or international collections. These ad hoc approaches also neglect the opportunities provided by recent developments in computer assisted interviewing and in the monitoring of retrieval activities to build models of user behavior. These techniques offer a number of potential benefits. For instance, it is possible to automatically detect potential biases in the way that investigators analyze particular incidents.     

The use and abuse of scientific studies

In response to Evelyn Pluhar'sWho Can Be Morally Obligated to Be a Vegetarian? in this journal issue, the author has read all of Pluhar's citations for the accuracy of her claims and had these read by an independent nutritionist. Detailed analysis of Pluhar's argument shows that she attempts to make her case by consistent misappropriation of the findings and conclusions of the studies she cites. Pluhar makes sweeping generalizations from scanty data, ignores causal explanations given by scientists, equates hypothesis with fact, draws false cause conclusions from studies, and in one case claims a conclusion opposite of what the scientist published. Such poor reasoning cannot be the basis of an argument for moral vegetarianism. A broader search of the literature and attention to reviews and textbooks in nutrition shows that each of Pluhar's claims is suspect or incorrect. Pluhar has not undermined my central claims: even if animals have certain rights and well-planned vegetarian diets are safe in complex industrialized societies, these diets cannot be so regarded if the presuppositions of high levels of wealth, education, and medical care do not exist; and, women, children, the aged and some ill persons are at greater risk on restrictive vegan diets. Thus, any duty of moral vegetarianism is not categorical but provisional in nature.     

基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析

为解决危险品风险分析问题,利用粗糙集理论在处理不确定、不精确问题上的优势,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析方法。首先,建立决策表,经化简后获得各属性的重要度,识别出影响危险品运输的主要因素与次要因素,以及主次因素所占比例;然后,利用区分函数对决策表进行约简,得出决策表的属性约简;最后,利用决策表的决策规则对原始数据进行推导,得出危险品运输事故的一般规律。结果表明,影响危险品运输事故类型的最重要因素是危险品的类型,所占比重为42.86%,其次是危险品运输的道路状况与危险品运输车辆状况,各占28.57%。在道路状况欠佳且车辆状况良好的前提下,腐蚀品发生危险品事故的严重程度要依次高于毒害品与压缩气体和液化气体。     

基于案例推理和规则推理融合的跑道侵入事件调查

为提高调查员调查跑道侵入事件的效率和准确度,提出智能辅助决策支持系统的构想。通过辨析基于案例推理和基于规则推理机制的特点发现,两者的缺点可以借助对方的优点予以弥补。在不破坏2种推理技术独立性和完整性的前提下,对其进行融合。在求解各特征属性权重过程中,利用最优传递矩阵的概念改进层次分析法,使之自然满足一致性要求。算例表明,在跑道侵入事件的调查中,无论属性是枚举型特征、数值型特征还是数值区间型特征,相似度计算的方法都是可行可靠的。